Opportunity Check

OPPORTUNITY CHECK

Transport for Wales

OPPORTUNITY VERDICT: MEDIUM

BEST PURA OPPORTUNITY: Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management

WHY: 4 independent signal(s) from 1 independent source(s) support the assessment. Facts, inference and unknowns remain separate.

EVIDENCE
4 independent signal(s)
1 independent source(s)

PURA FIT
Asset Management · Compliance · Inspection · Workflow · Scheduling · Reporting · Mobile Workflow · Prototype / Discovery

LIKELY BUYER
Transport for Wales

PROCUREMENT ROUTE
KNOWN — SUPPLIER TEAM / PERMITTED_DIRECT_EMAIL

INITIAL COMMERCIAL OFFER
£5,000 + VAT discovery

TIME TO CASH
FAST

TENDER LIKELIHOOD
HIGH

NEXT BEST ACTION: P016 verifies the original buyer need, procurement window, eligibility and permitted route. Pre-tender evidence is research; it does not establish current approval, receiver START or SEND authority.

Retained assessment recommendation — not current authority

Andrew to approve a high-value strategic partner approach; no direct replacement-system claim

Original wording is preserved as history; it is not a new approval, execution instruction or receiver receipt.

WHY THIS COMPANY

4 independent signal(s) from 1 independent source(s) support the assessment. Facts, inference and unknowns remain separate.

WHAT PROBLEM WE SEE

Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management

WHAT PURA COULD SELL

£5,000 + VAT discovery · Asset Management · Compliance · Inspection · Workflow · Scheduling · Reporting · Mobile Workflow · Prototype / Discovery

WHO MAY BUY IT

Transport for Wales

WHAT EVIDENCE SUPPORTS IT

4 independent signal(s) from 1 source(s)

WHAT IS UNKNOWN

COMMERCIAL_SUITABILITY_NOT_HIGH · PURA_DELIVERABILITY_NOT_PROVED · QA_BELOW_90 · SAFETY_CRITICAL_PARTNER_REQUIRED · contract end · contract start · current supplier · extension options · renewal window

HOW WE COULD APPROACH

PARTNER · intelligence only; existing outbound gates still apply.

HOW LONG TO CASH

FAST

WHAT MIGHT BECOME A TENDER

PROCUREMENT_EXPECTED · HIGH likelihood.

WHAT WOULD STRENGTHEN THE CASE

A second independent public source · A current buyer or budget decision · A confirmed procurement or renewal window

WHAT WOULD KILL THE CASE

Evidence shows the requirement is awarded or closed · No governed Pura capability fits the evidenced problem · A mandatory delivery or procurement constraint makes the route non-viable

FUTURE PROCUREMENT WINDOW

CLASSIFICATION
LIKELY

CURRENT SUPPLIER
UNKNOWN

CONTRACT START / END
UNKNOWN / UNKNOWN

EXTENSIONS
UNKNOWN

RENEWAL WINDOW
UNKNOWN

PRIOR REFERENCE
UNKNOWN

APPROXIMATE VALUE
UNKNOWN

FRAMEWORK
UNKNOWN

LIKELY RETENDER
UNKNOWN

UNDERLYING SCORES

ACCESSIBILITY
4 / 4
Route permission: PERMITTED_DIRECT_EMAIL

BUDGET EVIDENCE
0 / 4
Buyer budget UNKNOWN

BUYER EVIDENCE
4 / 4
Named buyer and route retained

COMPETITIVE PRESSURE
0 / 4
Higher score means lower evidenced competitive pressure

DELIVERY COMPLEXITY
1 / 4
Higher score means more bounded delivery

PROBLEM EVIDENCE
4 / 4
4 independent retained evidence identities

PROCUREMENT EVIDENCE
0 / 4
Procurement evidence UNKNOWN

PURA CAPABILITY FIT
2 / 4
Exact governed capability match: Asset Management, Compliance, Inspection, Workflow, Scheduling, Reporting, Mobile Workflow, Prototype / Discovery

TIME TO CASH
4 / 4
Bounded authorised offer and route assessed

URGENCY
3 / 4
Currentness: LIKELY_CONTINUING_NEED

STRUCTURED EVIDENCE

ASSET MANAGEMENT GAPHIGH

The engagement deadline and expected February tender date have passed

SOURCE: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk · public evidence

OBSERVED: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00 · EVENT: UNKNOWN

INFERENCE: Potential Pura-addressable need: Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management

UNKNOWNS: current supplier · contract start · contract end · extension options · renewal window · SAFETY_CRITICAL_PARTNER_REQUIRED · COMMERCIAL_SUITABILITY_NOT_HIGH · PURA_DELIVERABILITY_NOT_PROVED · QA_BELOW_90

RESEARCH / MARKET SIGNAL — live actionable demand unverified · source freshness UNKNOWN

OPEN ORIGINAL SOURCE

Current accessibility UNVERIFIED — link retained; no live source check implied

Readable source details and context

Buyer: Transport for Wales
Captured need / service scope: The engagement deadline and expected February tender date have passed
Notice / signal type: ASSET_MANAGEMENT_GAP
Publication: UNKNOWN
Event date (when retained): UNKNOWN
Deadline: UNKNOWN
Retained verification / observation clock — no new source check implied: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00
Location: UNKNOWN
Published value / budget / rate: UNKNOWN
Value meaning: UNKNOWN
Original reference: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk
Exact proposed next action: Retain and internally review this evidence; no contact authorised
Responsible project for source / qualification reporting: P016
Intended delivery project / receiver — acceptance unverified: P016

Retained source reference: https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/procurement/ocds-h6vhtk-05e6ad

Published value is not Pura revenue or an authorised commitment. Source status is separate from owner approval and receiver execution.

ASSET MANAGEMENT GAPHIGH

The official procurement record currently contains planning only

SOURCE: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk · public evidence

OBSERVED: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00 · EVENT: UNKNOWN

INFERENCE: Potential Pura-addressable need: Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management

RESEARCH / MARKET SIGNAL — live actionable demand unverified · source freshness UNKNOWN

OPEN ORIGINAL SOURCE

Current accessibility UNVERIFIED — link retained; no live source check implied

Readable source details and context

Buyer: Transport for Wales
Captured need / service scope: The official procurement record currently contains planning only
Notice / signal type: ASSET_MANAGEMENT_GAP
Publication: UNKNOWN
Event date (when retained): UNKNOWN
Deadline: UNKNOWN
Retained verification / observation clock — no new source check implied: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00
Location: UNKNOWN
Published value / budget / rate: UNKNOWN
Value meaning: UNKNOWN
Original reference: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk
Exact proposed next action: Retain and internally review this evidence; no contact authorised
Responsible project for source / qualification reporting: P016
Intended delivery project / receiver — acceptance unverified: P016

Retained source reference: https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/076197-2025

Published value is not Pura revenue or an authorised commitment. Source status is separate from owner approval and receiver execution.

COMPLIANCE PRESSUREHIGH

Scope covers maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile use, reporting and compliance

SOURCE: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk · public evidence

OBSERVED: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00 · EVENT: UNKNOWN

INFERENCE: Potential Pura-addressable need: Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management

RESEARCH / MARKET SIGNAL — live actionable demand unverified · source freshness UNKNOWN

OPEN ORIGINAL SOURCE

Current accessibility UNVERIFIED — link retained; no live source check implied

Readable source details and context

Buyer: Transport for Wales
Captured need / service scope: Scope covers maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile use, reporting and compliance
Notice / signal type: COMPLIANCE_PRESSURE
Publication: UNKNOWN
Event date (when retained): UNKNOWN
Deadline: UNKNOWN
Retained verification / observation clock — no new source check implied: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00
Location: UNKNOWN
Published value / budget / rate: UNKNOWN
Value meaning: UNKNOWN
Original reference: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk
Exact proposed next action: Retain and internally review this evidence; no contact authorised
Responsible project for source / qualification reporting: P016
Intended delivery project / receiver — acceptance unverified: P016

Retained source reference: https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/procurement/ocds-h6vhtk-05e6ad

Published value is not Pura revenue or an authorised commitment. Source status is separate from owner approval and receiver execution.

SYSTEM REPLACEMENTHIGH

November 2025 planning notice sought a replacement rolling-stock asset management system

SOURCE: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk · public evidence

OBSERVED: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00 · EVENT: 2025-11

INFERENCE: Potential Pura-addressable need: Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management

RESEARCH / MARKET SIGNAL — live actionable demand unverified · source freshness UNKNOWN

OPEN ORIGINAL SOURCE

Current accessibility UNVERIFIED — link retained; no live source check implied

Readable source details and context

Buyer: Transport for Wales
Captured need / service scope: November 2025 planning notice sought a replacement rolling-stock asset management system
Notice / signal type: SYSTEM_REPLACEMENT
Publication: UNKNOWN
Event date (when retained): 2025-11
Deadline: UNKNOWN
Retained verification / observation clock — no new source check implied: 2026-09-09T18:00:22+00:00
Location: UNKNOWN
Published value / budget / rate: UNKNOWN
Value meaning: UNKNOWN
Original reference: www.find-tender.service.gov.uk
Exact proposed next action: Retain and internally review this evidence; no contact authorised
Responsible project for source / qualification reporting: P016
Intended delivery project / receiver — acceptance unverified: P016

Retained source reference: https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/076197-2025

Published value is not Pura revenue or an authorised commitment. Source status is separate from owner approval and receiver execution.

Raw check record

{
  "id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
  "organisation_id": "8f64bebe-1a9a-5399-8684-b0427e1c637a",
  "request_id": "3dc9b272-c97e-44b5-aa7d-3058469e443e",
  "model_version": "P016-OPPORTUNITY-CHECK-v1",
  "evidence_digest": "43acff99fba223dbe31d5effaf4d55845a7ddae50ae80294a847dcae9d4ca449",
  "verdict": "MEDIUM",
  "best_pura_opportunity": "Rolling-stock asset, maintenance, materials, warranty, scheduling, mobile and compliance management",
  "why": "4 independent signal(s) from 1 independent source(s) support the assessment. Facts, inference and unknowns remain separate.",
  "evidence_count": 4,
  "source_count": 1,
  "likely_buyer": "Transport for Wales",
  "procurement_route": "KNOWN \u2014 SUPPLIER TEAM / PERMITTED_DIRECT_EMAIL",
  "initial_commercial_offer": "\u00a35,000 + VAT discovery",
  "time_to_cash": "FAST",
  "tender_likelihood": "HIGH",
  "next_best_action": "Andrew to approve a high-value strategic partner approach; no direct replacement-system claim",
  "lifecycle": "PROCUREMENT_EXPECTED",
  "best_route": "PARTNER",
  "quick_cash_candidate": 0,
  "pre_tender": 1,
  "status": "COMPLETED",
  "is_current": 1,
  "checked_at": "2026-09-09T18:48:01.644806+00:00",
  "next_check_at": "2026-09-10T18:48:01.644806+00:00",
  "data_mode": "LIVE",
  "organisation": "Transport for Wales",
  "domain": "tfw.wales",
  "pura_fit": {
    "capability_families": [
      "Asset Management",
      "Compliance",
      "Inspection",
      "Workflow",
      "Scheduling",
      "Reporting",
      "Mobile Workflow",
      "Prototype / Discovery"
    ],
    "delivery_model": "PURA_ORGANISATIONAL_DELIVERY + AI_CODEX_GITHUB_ASSISTED",
    "model": "PASTE_035",
    "personal_skill_inference": "NONE"
  },
  "unknowns": [
    "COMMERCIAL_SUITABILITY_NOT_HIGH",
    "PURA_DELIVERABILITY_NOT_PROVED",
    "QA_BELOW_90",
    "SAFETY_CRITICAL_PARTNER_REQUIRED",
    "contract end",
    "contract start",
    "current supplier",
    "extension options",
    "renewal window"
  ],
  "strengthening_evidence": [
    "A second independent public source",
    "A current buyer or budget decision",
    "A confirmed procurement or renewal window"
  ],
  "kill_case": [
    "Evidence shows the requirement is awarded or closed",
    "No governed Pura capability fits the evidenced problem",
    "A mandatory delivery or procurement constraint makes the route non-viable"
  ],
  "scores": [
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "ACCESSIBILITY",
      "score": 4,
      "explanation": "Route permission: PERMITTED_DIRECT_EMAIL",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "BUDGET_EVIDENCE",
      "score": 0,
      "explanation": "Buyer budget UNKNOWN",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "BUYER_EVIDENCE",
      "score": 4,
      "explanation": "Named buyer and route retained",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "COMPETITIVE_PRESSURE",
      "score": 0,
      "explanation": "Higher score means lower evidenced competitive pressure",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "DELIVERY_COMPLEXITY",
      "score": 1,
      "explanation": "Higher score means more bounded delivery",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "PROBLEM_EVIDENCE",
      "score": 4,
      "explanation": "4 independent retained evidence identities",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "PROCUREMENT_EVIDENCE",
      "score": 0,
      "explanation": "Procurement evidence UNKNOWN",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "PURA_CAPABILITY_FIT",
      "score": 2,
      "explanation": "Exact governed capability match: Asset Management, Compliance, Inspection, Workflow, Scheduling, Reporting, Mobile Workflow, Prototype / Discovery",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "TIME_TO_CASH",
      "score": 4,
      "explanation": "Bounded authorised offer and route assessed",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    },
    {
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "dimension": "URGENCY",
      "score": 3,
      "explanation": "Currentness: LIKELY_CONTINUING_NEED",
      "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]"
    }
  ],
  "pre_tender_record": {
    "id": "acf71348-114f-4558-9ff3-68b8f4b028e8",
    "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
    "organisation_id": "8f64bebe-1a9a-5399-8684-b0427e1c637a",
    "lifecycle": "PROCUREMENT_EXPECTED",
    "position": "PRE-TENDER / EXPECTED PROCUREMENT",
    "procurement_expected": "EVIDENCED",
    "market_engagement_state": "UNKNOWN",
    "live_tender_state": "NOT EVIDENCED",
    "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]",
    "unknowns_json": "[\"COMMERCIAL_SUITABILITY_NOT_HIGH\",\"PURA_DELIVERABILITY_NOT_PROVED\",\"QA_BELOW_90\",\"SAFETY_CRITICAL_PARTNER_REQUIRED\",\"contract end\",\"contract start\",\"current supplier\",\"extension options\",\"renewal window\"]",
    "recorded_at": "2026-09-09T18:48:01.644806+00:00"
  },
  "procurement_window": {
    "id": "c937eeea-463b-4f50-9d55-47d7e571a31f",
    "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
    "organisation_id": "8f64bebe-1a9a-5399-8684-b0427e1c637a",
    "current_supplier": "UNKNOWN",
    "contract_start": null,
    "contract_end": null,
    "extension_options": "UNKNOWN",
    "renewal_window": "UNKNOWN",
    "prior_procurement_reference": "UNKNOWN",
    "approximate_value": "UNKNOWN",
    "framework_used": "UNKNOWN",
    "likely_retender_timing": "UNKNOWN",
    "future_procurement_window": "LIKELY",
    "evidence_json": "[\"4eeeee8d-2240-5170-a84f-7f8bd94e2e55\",\"653245c0-fa0a-51c3-9d24-aee20f53499f\",\"7871c2b8-887d-5c65-b950-cdd3308f996c\",\"9c73008d-d9fd-5cfb-aebc-d29f3436d5fd\"]",
    "unknowns_json": "[\"current supplier\",\"contract start\",\"extension options\",\"exact renewal window\",\"contract end\"]",
    "recorded_at": "2026-09-09T18:48:01.644806+00:00"
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "id": "f036aa4e-a33d-4135-af80-86382468741d",
      "check_id": "a7642fea-97ee-408f-a76f-3f772d1eb24e",
      "event_key": "2051aa14911298f90fbb72267b89d07fe0cd19a08f257dd287a99c6cc0ace042",
      "event_type": "CHECK_COMPLETED",
      "previous_lifecycle": null,
      "new_lifecycle": "PROCUREMENT_EXPECTED",
      "reason_json": "{\"evidence_count\":4,\"source_count\":1,\"verdict\":\"MEDIUM\"}",
      "occurred_at": "2026-09-09T18:48:01.644806+00:00"
    }
  ]
}